Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Off-topic: Can the Republicans Stop the "Killer Bs" (Barack and Bill) from taking the White House?

The Iowa caucus delivered a resounding boost of momentum to Senator Barack Obama's campaign with Hillary Clinton and John Edwards virtually tied for second. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden left the Democratic race, while Edwards, Dennis Kucinich and Bill Richardson need a solid NH showing tonight (Edwards probably needs close to 20%; Kucinich at least 5% and Richardson at least 8%) to stay viable. John Mc Cain is a slight Granite State favorite--but the Republican picture will not be clear until at least February, very possibly longer.

While acknowledging that Hillary Clinton remains a formidable candidate with tremendous financial and personnel resources, "Obama fever" appears to be sweeping the country. Barring a Clinton turnaround by Super Tuesday early next month, I believe that the Illinois senator will become the first serious African-American presidential candidate based on his tremendous popularity among young people and independents.

In my opinion, an excellent vice-presidential selection for Obama would be Bill Richardson--Richardson would energize the Hispanic vote, provide foreign policy and federal-state relations experience and is generally considered a fairly moderate Democrat. Barring a major international crisis, assasination attempt, etc. between now and November, a Obama-Richardson candidacy would virtually force the Republican candidate to achieve MASSIVE majorities (probably in excess of 65%) amongst white males over 30 (there is no present reason to believe that Obama-Richardson would be less attractive to women than Kerry-Edwards in 2004) and evangelical Christians. Though I lean Republican, I see no reason to expect this--in fact, I would at least have to look at who the Republican nominate and see the Democratic platform was--Obama/Richardson is not a ticket to reject out of hand.

UPDATE (1/9): Hillary indeed proved to be formidable yesterday. I still think that Obama gets the nomination IF no major foreign crises occur between now and August. Richardson will be smart tomorrow to pledge his support "to the Democratic nominee."


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