2012 Presidential (and down ballot) Predictions

Disclaimer: While I have tried to make this as objective as possible; I early voted for Romney/Ryan

Preliminary notes: 2008: Obama 350 electoral, McCain 188
Present House: 193 D, 242 R (need D +25 to change hands)
Present Senate: 53* D, 47 R (*includes two independents voting as Democrats)
Scenarios: 1-5 for Presidential popular vote and Senate; 1-6 for Presidential electoral votes and House
1--most favorable for Democrats; 5 or 6--most favorable for Republicans
Real Clear Senate: 13 Swing Seats: 4 presently Republican, 9 presently Democrat

Presidential Popular Vote Percentage Difference (2008: Obama +6%)
[1] Obama/Biden +3% or more:   5%  (late September 2012)
[2] Obama/Biden +1-3%: 20%      (early September 2012--after conventions)
[3] Within 1%: 30%                     (flip of 2000 election--Obama probably would win Electoral college)
[4] Romney/Ryan + 1-3% 30%       (present state of tracking polls)
[5] Romney/Ryan +3% or more: 15%        (rerun of 1980)
My Guess: Romney/Ryan +1-2%

Presidential Electoral College, Democratic count on left (2008: Obama +178)
[1] 347/191 (D adds AZ; R adds IN and NE District 2) 5%
[2] 303/235 (from [1], add AZ, FL and NC to R) 20%
[3] 284/254 (from [2], add IA and VA to R) 25%
[4] 267/271 (from [3], add CO, NH and WI to R) 25%
[5] 237/301 (from [4], add NV and OH to R) 20%
[6] 201/337 (from [5], add MN, NM and PA to R) 5%
My Guess: cannot guess yet, do not except race to be called before 10 pm CDT

Senate (see above):
[1] 55/45 (11 swing states go Democrat), net D +2, 20%
[2] 53/47 (9 swing states go Democrat), no net change, 25%
[3] 51/49 (7 swing states go Democrat), net R +2, 40%
[4] 49/51 (8 swing states go Republican), net R +4, 10%
[5] 47/53 (10 swing states go Republican), net R +6, 5%
My guess: R +1 or +2, Democrats barely keep Senate

House (see above)
[1] 215/220; D +22, 5%
[2] 203/232; D +10, 15%
[3] 198/237, D +5; 30%
[4] 195/240, D +2: 30%
[5] 190/245, R +3; 15%
[6] 185/150, R +8; 5%
My guess: D +2 to 7