Monday, November 03, 2008

2008 Political Projections

[1] Barack Obama gets about 2 million more popular votes than John Mc Cain, with most of the difference already in place from early voting. Senator Obama will recieve almost exactly 50% of the vote, Senator McCain 47-48% and minor parties 2-3%.
While I project that Obama will get about 310 electoral votes (270 needed to win), I do give McCain a weak (about 25%) chance--especially if he somewhat sweeps FL, OH and PA. [Disclosure--I early voted for McCain]

[3] Democrats gain about 7 Senate seats, leaving them with 57 or 58, depending on whether Lieberman continues to caucus with the Democrats. With an Obama presidency, this increase combined with a significant number of moderate Republican senators means that the GOP would only be able to filibuster the most extreme of legislation proposed by the Democrats.

[3] The GOP also sings the blues in the House, where the Democrats pick up about 15-20 new seats, mostly open seats from Republican retirements.

In all likelihood, the above predictions will be worth about what you paid for them!


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